(GasTrader.net - April 1, 2005)

If the forecasts of a seasoned veteran are correct, weather bulls will have little to work with in terms of temperature and weather-based price activity next week. Further out conditions appear more promising for summer warmth and an active hurricane season.

Much if the country next week will be warmer than normal and the reason for that is that flow of weather will be mainly from a west to east direction. It’s zonal flow and it is bringing in mild Pacific air rather than cold Canadian air,” says Jim Roullier, meteorologist with Planalytics, a suburban Philadelphia forecasting firm. For April the all too familiar Southern Stream moisture could kick up it's heels again, yielding rains from the Southwest and across the Gulf Coast, but it's southern confinement will mean little moderating influence for the rest of the Nation, and more likely establishing just a better moisture breeding ground for eventual snowstorms further North. National Weather

Service 6 to 10 Day Forecast

He noted that Canadian air is retreating to the north, and North America will have a series of storm systems spaced about every 3 days that move in from the Pacific Northwest and make their way across the country. “Each of these storms may bring one or two days of seasonally cool weather with clouds and precipitation, and then typically the sun comes out and brings spring warmth,” he said.

“That warmth will show up in the form of above normal temperatures targeting the Rocky Mountains and a good section of the adjacent plains states. Further east St. Louis and Chicago will see above normal temperatures. There will be a lot of 60 and 70degree highs,” he said. He pointed out that the blocking that was in place over the Northeast broke down last week and it allowed for a progression of systems to work their way across the U.S. There will be no more deep troughs over the eastern part of the country.

“Our summer climate models suggest that if there is going to be any unusual weather I twill not be until late July and August. The models also show a strong degree of confidence in an active hurricane season.

He added that the main reasons for this are that the water temperatures over the Atlantic Basin are warmer than normal and warmer than last year. In addition there is a lack ofan El Nino which if it we present would act to shear hurricanes apart. “What we are also looking at is climate models which are showing a bona fide heat wave from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains. The highest probability of the heat wave will be over Texas and the ERCOT region along with the central US”.

The models are showing the development of a ridge aloft as summer progresses, and it starts to develop over the Rockies. The Pacific Northwest looks to be in deep trouble, reservoirs are only 15 to 25 per cent of normal. “There will be a lot of need for gas fired generation in the Pacific Northwest, but California is in good shape,” he said.

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