Cool autumn in Northeast US could boost gas storage levels: WSI

Washington (Platts)--22Aug2005

The Northeast US can expect below-normal temperatures during the
three-month period beginning Sep 1, while the southern and central parts of
the country will experience above-average temperatures for most of that time,
private forecaster WSI Corp said Monday. 
     In September, the Northeast--particularly areas north of New York--will
be unusually cool, as will the Pacific Northwest, according to Andover,
Massachusetts-based WSI, which predicted warmer-than-average weather across
the rest of the country except California.
     "Cooler temperatures in the Northeast will limit demand expectations for
both electricity and gas demand from the power sector in that region," Energy
Security Analysis Inc said in describing the market impact of WSI's seasonal
outlook. "This will help to offset what could be higher-than-normal demand in
Texas and the Southwest."
     ESAI added that "the net expectation for September would be for normal
injections to storage, which will help to ease market fears of shortages in
natural gas inventories prior to the winter."   
     During October, WSI is predicting temperatures will be below average in
all regions except the West, where Washington, Oregon and California will
experience the warmest weather relative to normal. October is a "low-demand
month for both power and gas, and temperature variances from normal have
relatively low price impact," ESAI said. Storage injections "should be
stronger during most of October, although early-season heating demand could
develop in late October with a cooler forecast in the Northeast and
north-central regions."
     WSI's November forecast calls for cooler-than-normal weather in all areas
except the Southeast, which is "somewhat bullish for the natural gas market as
early-season gas demand should be higher than normal at the beginning of the
withdrawal season," according to ESAI.

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