Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The minor storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz (varied between -4 to -9 nT) and a slight increase in solar wind speed (around 468 km/s). This activity appears to be associated with a transient flow in the solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 076
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 015/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/010-008/008-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/30
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/05