Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N11E51) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region has some magnetic complexity but is not growing at this time. The other spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 803 during the next three days (27-29 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed showed a steady decline with initial values around 620 km/s to day end values around 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for 27-28 August and is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29 August.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 093
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 010/010-010/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05