Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2005 IA.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels today.

Region 794 (S11E19) produced a C8/Sf event at 04/0559Z, which was the largest flare of the period. A resulting CME was seen on LASCO C2 imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region continues to show steady growth in sunspot area.

Region 792 (N11W14) produced a single C-class flare today and underwent continued decay in magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 are capable of producing isolated M-class flare activity.
 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A period of active conditions occurred at high latitudes between 04/0600Z and 0900Z.
 

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
 

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
 

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 106
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 096
 

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 007/012-007/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05