by Sebastian Smith
05-11-05
Near BP's giant oil terminal south of the
Azerbaijani capital, Baku, graffiti by a Roman soldier underline how long great
powers have struggled to control an arid stretch of Caspian Sea coast.
The first-century AD doodle chiselled into a rock merely records the name of a
centurion, Lucius Iulius, and his unit in the 12th legion.
Yet as Azerbaijan prepares for tense parliamentary elections, the Latin
inscription is also a reminder of Azerbaijan's historic position, along with the
wider Caucasus, at the centre of international rivalries.
"Azerbaijan is a strategic place, a crossroads of Asia, Europe, Russia and the
Middle East -- and whoever controls the Caucasus controls the crossroads," said
Fariz Ismailzade, a researcher in Baku for US-based Johns Hopkins University.
In Baku, Azerbaijan's role as battleground of empires is written in the
architecture. Garish glass towers testify to the billions of dollars poured in
by US, British and other international oil companies that have rushed to exploit
the Caspian's resources since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Nearby, elegant, late 19th century European mansions recall an earlier,
pre-Soviet oil boom, when Baku was the leading petroleum producer and the Nobel
Brothers company made part of the fortune that would fund the annual Nobel
prizes. And alongside neighbourhoods of dilapidated Soviet eyesores stand the
ancient alleyways and castle walls of the old town -- evidence of many centuries
of Arab, Persian and Turkish invasions.
With its high stakes, diplomatic wrangling and chess-like positioning of
military bases, today's contest for influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia
resembles the shadowy "Great Game" between Russia and Britain in the 19th
century. So although the chief prize today is oil, politics is always in the mix
-- something well illustrated by the BP terminal near the Roman soldier's
graffiti.
Built in a lunar-like landscape, the huge complex marks the start of a new, $ 4
bn (HK$ 31.2 bn) pipeline funnelling Caspian oil to the West. There were
cheaper, easier options to direct the pipeline through Iran or Russia. Instead
it heads through hilly and unstable Georgia, then over Turkey to the
Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
Analysts say the United States wanted to isolate Iran and break Russia's
traditional monopoly on export routes. It succeeded. The vapour trails of US
military aircraft flying to Afghanistan offer another clue to why Washington is
so interested in this corner of the ex-Soviet Union.
Although rumours of plans to open a US airfield remain unsubstantiated, many
analysts see Azerbaijan as high on the Pentagon's list for expansion,
particularly as a potential springboard for attacking Iran.
Work began this year on two powerful radar stations in Azerbaijan -- one just
north of the border with Iran, the other near Russia -- and Washington is also
spending millions of dollars on boosting the Azeri navy. US military instructors
are already well established in neighbouring Georgia, in stark contrast to
Russian troops who must quit by 2008.
The question, as Azeris go to the polls, is whether the West will be too busy
thinking about geopolitics to care about democracy. Many in the country fear
just that.
But a Western diplomat said that power games and democracy are not mutually
exclusive.
"I think it's in the interest of the international community and in the interest
of the oil companies to have a stable situation. And that is served best by
having genuine democratic institutions."
Source: The Standard