THE G8 leaders are poised to reach a new agreement on climate change, involving a deal on energy efficiency and a pathway for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, said last night he was confident about brokering an agreement whereby the United States will agree to work with India and China to forge a new environmental agenda.

Buoyed by the Olympics victory and recent White House concessions on climate change, Mr Blair appeared confident of securing a substantial deal this evening, when the climate change communique is expected.

The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in February, will expire in 2012, and Mr Blair has been hoping that a "Gleneagles declaration" would succeed it. This is now unlikely, but G8 leaders may work towards such a goal. Mr Blair said: "If you do end up with a consensus post-Kyoto that doesn't include America, then you're very unlikely to get the emerging economies [of India and China] involved."

The Prime Minister predicted that the summit was on track to agree "at least a pathway, so that when Kyoto ends in 2012, there is a consensus about the direction of travel". And this, he said, would be a "victory for France" as it fits its agenda.

According to Japanese sources, however, leaders have agreed to a proposal from Tokyo to detail energy consumption in major industries and by consumers, also explaining how their tax systems encourage green resources. Progress would be judged at subsequent G8 meetings, with the possibility of formal efficiency targets being set later, perhaps when leaders meet in Russia next year.

Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister, is also expected to unveil a plan to transfer Japan's efficiency technology to developing countries by means of official development assistance.

However, the environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth (FoE) said yesterday that the G8 countries are already signed up to creating a "world bank" of climate-change technology and have been since the 1992 agreement in Rio. "They've already agreed to share know-how, but the only technology that gets transferred is the means of rich countries to exploit poor countries and deprive them of their natural resources," said Tony Juniper, the vice-chairman of FoE International.

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