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WASHINGTON, DC, US, November 30, 2005 (Refocus
Weekly)
The use of renewable energies will decline in
gross terms under the Kyoto Protocol, compared with a penetration
rate without the global agreement on climate change, says the U.S.
Department of Energy.
Western Europe would see the largest difference, with consumption
of 6.6 quadrillion Btu of renewables in 2025 under Kyoto, lower than
the 7.4 quads under a baseline prediction without the agreement,
explains DOE’s ‘International Energy Outlook 2005' released earlier
this year by its Energy Information Administration. By 2010,
consumption of renewables would be 5.9 quads under Kyoto, and 6.1
quads without.
By comparison, oil would account for 29.5 quads by 2025 under Kyoto
versus 31 quads without, natural gas would be 24.5 quads with and
22.9 quads without, coal would be 3.6 with and 6.9 without, while
nuclear would be 9.0 with Kyoto and 7.8 quads under the baseline.
For total GHG emissions in western Europe by 2025, Kyoto will prompt
a reduction to 3,537 Mt from the prediction of 3,952 Mt without the
agreement.
The same differential would exist in Japan, where consumption of
renewables would be 1.6 quads by 2025 with Kyoto and 1.7 quads
without, while Annex I countries (signatories to Kyoto) would
consume 16.9 quads of renewables by 2025 under Kyoto compared with
17.8 quads without the treaty. Canada, the only Annex 1 country in
North America, would consume 5.1 quads of renewables under either
scenario.
“The projected penetration of renewable fuels in the energy markets
of participating Annex I countries is lower in the Kyoto Protocol
case than in the reference case, for a number of reasons,” the
analysis explains. “Electricity generation from nuclear power is
1.9% higher in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case in
2010 and 12.5% higher in 2025; and total energy use is 1.8% lower in
2010 and 1.7% lower in 2025.”
“As a result, even though generation from non-fossil fuels makes up
a larger share of total energy consumption in the Kyoto Protocol
case than in the reference case, renewable generation is lower,” it
concludes.
The DOE model for the Kyoto scenario assumes that 50% of aggregate
GHG emission reductions will be met by domestic reductions, with the
balance coming from international market mechanisms such as CDM and
JI.
For participating Annex I countries, total energy demand under Kyoto
will be 4 quads lower than in the reference case in 2025, assuming
the Kyoto targets remain constant over the entire
forecast period. Although consumption of coal will drop 18% by 2025,
CO2 emissions associated with coal use will be 21% lower due to the
expected penetration of carbon sequestration technologies in western
Europe which will sequester 90% of emissions from coal-fired
generation.
“The penetration of the sequestration technology also limits the
potential for renewables development,” the report notes.
Renewables are expected to retain a market share of 8% of total
global energy consumption from 2002 to 2025, with much of the growth
in renewables expected from large-scale hydroelectric projects in
the developing world, particularly in emerging Asia.
EIA is the independent statistical and analytical agency of the DOE,
which produces an annual forecast of energy consumption.
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