Renewables to provide 2% of global energy by 2030, says IEA

PARIS, France, November 9, 2005 (Refocus Weekly)

Energy from emerging renewables will grow faster than any other source in the world until 2030, increasing at 6.2% per year, according to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency.

However, wind, solar and geothermal will supply less than 2% of world demand in 25 years since the technologies start from a low base, the IEA explains in its ‘World Energy Outlook 2005.’ The share of biomass will decline slightly as it is replaced with modern commercial fuels in developing countries, hydro will remain broadly constant while the share of nuclear power will decline marginally.

Global energy markets will remain robust through 2030 and, if policies remain unchanged, world energy demand will increase by more than 50% by that time, the forecast predicts. World energy resources are adequate to meet this demand, but an investment of US$17 trillion will be needed to bring new energy resources to consumers.

Carbon emissions related to energy consumption will also climb and, by 2030, will be 52% higher than today.

“These projected trends have important implications and lead to a future that is not sustainable from an energy-security or environmental perspective,” says Claude Mandil. “We must change these outcomes and get the planet onto a sustainable energy path.”

The 600-page report has a special section on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which is expected to increase dependence for IEA member countries and large importers of its oil and natural gas production. “The importance of MENA to global oil and gas markets cannot be underestimated,” adds Mandil.

Under the reference scenario, world primary energy demand would reach 16.3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030, with two-thirds of that increase coming from developing countries. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy supply, with oil, natural gas and coal meeting 81% of primary energy demand by 2030, 1%-age point higher than in 2003.

Under an ‘Alternative Policy Scenario’ where high-consumption countries enact “vigorous new policy measures already being contemplated” such as energy efficiency and fuel switching, global primary energy demand would be 10% lower in 2030 than under the reference scenario. Primary demand would grow by 1.2% per year, 0.4%-age points less than the reference scenario, but demand in 2030 would still ne 37% above current levels.

Oil would remain the leading source of energy, but its share of global primary demand would be only slightly lower than under the reference scenario by 2030. By contrast, the share of coal would fall sharply in all regions and the use of non-hydro renewables, excluding biomass, would be 30% higher in 2030 than under the reference scenario.


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