Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 02 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region

818 (S08E06) produced a B2 x-ray flare and showed decay in sunspot area. Region 819 (S09W01) remains a simple beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A solar sector boundary crossing passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 02/1800Z. The solar wind speed increased from near 400 km/sec to over 550 km/sec shortly thereafter.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active to isolated minor storm conditions may become possible late on 04 Nov and through 05 Nov due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 02 Nov 078

Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 02 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 007/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov ???/???

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 006/008-010/012-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/30

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/35

Minor storm 05/15/20

Major-severe storm 01/05/10