Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 06 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S17W41) produced a

C1 flare at 06/1443 UTC. This region continues to increase in area; however, it remains a simple beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares from Region 820.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has declined to approximately 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Nov 082

Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 06 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 008/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01