Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares from Region 820 (S16W54).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 November. Mostly unsettled conditions are possible on 10 November.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Nov 079

Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 07 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01