Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 10 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There are no spots visible today in Region 820 (S16W94) as it rotates around the west side of the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible for 11 November due to coronal hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 10 Nov 078

Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 10 Nov 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 008/015-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/10

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01