Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66) produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed analysis.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

Class M 30/30/30

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Nov 088

Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 090/095/100

90 Day Mean 13 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 007/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 008/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/008-008/010-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/10/10

Minor storm 01/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01