Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822

(S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC and an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The remainder of the disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a possibility for major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

Class M 50/50/50

Class X 05/05/05

Proton 05/05/05

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Nov 092

Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105

90 Day Mean 14 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05