Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S08E41) produced two M-class flares, an M1.0 at 2200Z and an M1.4 at 1751Z, along with numerous C- and B-class flares. Region 822 continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The region has retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remainder of the disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for 16 November, with a chance for isolated active periods. The elevated levels are expected due to a sector boundary crossing and a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected for 17-18 November.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov

Class M 50/50/50

Class X 05/05/05

Proton 05/05/05

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Nov 100

Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 105/105/105

90 Day Mean 15 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 007/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 009/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/25/25

Minor storm 25/15/15

Major-severe storm 10/05/05