Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 21 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 822

(S08W37) has decayed in both size and magnetic complexity. Regions

823 (S15W63) and 824 (S12E57) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 822.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

Class M 30/30/30

Class X 05/05/05

Proton 05/05/05

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 21 Nov 095

Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 095/095/090

90 Day Mean 21 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01