Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 28 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration

B2 x-ray enhancement was associated with a small eruption in Region

824 (S14W35) at around 28/0830Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO imagery at 28/0954Z; however, the CME was slow and mostly westward directed, and is therefore unlikely to be geoeffective. One of at least two new regions rotating into view on the east limb was numbered today as Region 826 (S02E62).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on 29 November. Minor storm periods with high latitude major storm periods are possible on 30 November and 01 December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 28 Nov 082

Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 28 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 008/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008/010-012/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/25/35

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/35/40

Minor storm 15/20/30

Major-severe storm 05/10/15