Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813

(S08E05) showed a slight decay in the trailing portion of the sunspot group. The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 has weakened during the period but remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 813 is capable of producing isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may result in active conditions on 09 October.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Oct 080

Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 06 Oct 089

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-005/010-010/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 01/01/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/20/30

Minor storm 01/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05