Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 10 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 813 (S07W48) continues to decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity continues at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole high speed stream remains in effect, with solar wind speed ranging 600 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 10 Oct 079

Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 080/080/085

90 Day Mean 10 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/010-010/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/15

Minor storm 05/05/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 05/05/01