Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 12 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 814 (S07W23) produced a single C1 flare at 12/0543Z with an associated Type II radio sweep

(486 km/s) and a slow moving CME on LASCO imagery.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 13 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 October. Isolated active conditions are possible on 15 October as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 12 Oct 077

Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 12 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/012-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/25/25

Minor storm 05/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05