Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region, numbered 815 (N08E75), appeared on the east limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with unsettled to active conditions possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Oct 078

Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/25

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05