Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 815 (N08E47) remains the only spotted region on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Oct 079

Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 16 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05