Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 816 (S14W29) emerged on the disk today as a simple B-type sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. There is a chance for isolated active periods on the third day (22 Oct) due to a favorably-positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Oct 078

Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 19 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/008-005/005-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/35

Minor storm 10/10/20

Major-severe storm 05/05/10