Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were reported on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed is elevated at approximately 530 km/s due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Oct 072

Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 070/075/075

90 Day Mean 26 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 017/019

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/012-010/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/35/35

Minor storm 20/20/20

Major-severe storm 05/05/05