Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 27 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were reported on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed has steadily decreased thoughout the day and is now at approximately 460 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 and 29 October due to the geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 27 Oct 072

Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 27 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 008/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/015-010/012-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 15/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/15

Minor storm 20/20/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/01