Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 30 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 818

(S06E47) is a small beta sunspot group in slow growth. Bright emissions on the southeast limb in SXI imagery may be associated with old active Region 814 (S08, L=228), which is due to return on

01 November. Region 814 was formerly Region 808, which was very active during its early September passage across the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance for C-class flare activity after 01 November as old active Region 814 rotates into view on the southeast limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Oct 076

Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/080/080

90 Day Mean 30 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01