Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 806 produced a long duration B4 flare at 01/2321 UTC with an associated CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 01/2354 UTC. This CME was a complex full halo event, with the biggest contribution believed to have its origin on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from Region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storming occurred between 0600 - 0900 UTC and again between 1600 - 1800 UTC after the arrival of a transient shock at approximately 02/1340 UTC from the CME on 31 August. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels with a chance for isolated minor storming on 02 September as the transient flow passes. The geomagnetic field should be at unsettled levels on 03 September.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 September due to the arrival of the CME associated with the long duration B4 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 077
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 075/080/085
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-008/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/20
Minor storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/25
Minor storm 30/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/05/05