Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 805 (S11W17) produced a B6 flare at 03/0410 UTC. There are no other regions with spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class event from region 805.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Geomagnetic storming occurred between 03/0000 - 0600 UTC after a period of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed showed a steady decline with initial values around 675 km/s to day-end values around 550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field at ACE declined throughout the period, ending the day at about 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 September. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming is expected on 05 September due to the possible effects of transient flow from the CME on 01 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06 September.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 074
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 024/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/015-012/015-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05