Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 14 2211 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity continues at high levels. An impulsive X1.7/1b flare was observed at 13/2322 UTC from Region 808 (S11W10).
This flare occurred during the decay phase of yesterdays double peak X1 proton flare. This X1.7 event had an associated 180 sfu tenflare.
Region 808 exhibited little change over the past 24 hours and still maintains a strong beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 808 has the potential for further M and X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storm conditions were the result of elevated solar wind speeds and long periods of southward Bz in the IMF. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 14/0040 UTC in response to an influx of energetic particles from the recent X1 flares late on 13 September. This new proton enhancement reached a maximum of 183 pfu at 14/1520 UTC before declining to around 50 pfu by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach major to severe storm levels on 15 September following the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 13 September X1 flares. Minor storm to major storm periods are possible on 16 September decreasing to mostly unsettled by 17 September. The greater than 10 MeV proton event may increase temporarily with the shock arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 75/70/65
Class X 50/40/40
Proton 99/60/40
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 117
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 026/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 050/075-018/030-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/20
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 60/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/35/30
Minor storm 20/35/15
Major-severe storm 70/20/05