Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was a single C-class event, a C1.2 flare at 20/0844 UTC. Region 808 was in decay as it rotated around the west limb today. Region 810 (N10E37) developed in area to a size of 250 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 088
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 085/080/080
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 010/012-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05