Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 810
(N09W06) produced a single C1/Sf flare today at 0559Z. This region underwent gradual growth during the period and is currently depicting magnetic beta-gamma characteristics. Newly numbered Region 812 (S01E73), was responsible for an eruptive prominence on the east solar limb just prior to becoming a visible CSO beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 810 has the complexity to produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 23/0600Z and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 083
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01