Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 26 2221 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 810 (N08W49).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to intervals of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position on 27 September.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 081
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/015-012/020-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/15/15