Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 810 (N08W74) and 812 (S02E05) produced no flares and exhibited no significant development. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains low, with end-of-day speeds around 370 km/s. Active periods were due to sustained southward Bz between 0100 - 0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with possible isolated minor storming on 29 September as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 30 September and 01 October.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 075
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 075/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 010/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 010/020-008/015-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10