Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Sep 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 810 (N08W89) and 812 (S03W08) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Sep 074

Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 29 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 012/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 006/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 008/015-008/015-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/30/25

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05