Climate talks expected to focus on future of Kyoto Protocol

Washington (Platts)--3Dec2004

Assisting developing countries to adapt to the adverse effects of global
warming will be a major agenda item when 4,000 delegates convene Monday at
climate change talks in Buenos Aires, but behind-the-scene discussions about
the future direction of international efforts to control greenhouse gases are
expected to be a major unfolding story. The protocol, which requires 30
industrial countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (primarily
carbon dioxide) by 5.2% from 2008 through 2102, becomes a legally binding
treaty Feb 16. It is widely regarded as a small, first step in the effort to
combat global warming and does not require commitments from developing
countries, including rapidly industrializing China. 

The US, the leading source of greenhouse gases, has renounced the treaty
because it excludes countries such as China and because of its perceived
adverse impact on the US economy. Adaptation to climate change will be the
topic of one of four high-level panel talks at COP-10, in which ministers and
delegations heads will participate.

The climate change convention states that industrial countries, in addition to
reducing emissions of gases that contribute to global warming, must assist
developing countries meet the costs of adapting to the adverse effects. But it
also refers to helping countries suffering adverse effects from "response
measures," which the oil producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia, claim means
that if industrial countries use less oil to meet Kyoto emission targets, oil
exporting countries should be compensated. "Everybody know that's totally
unacceptable," said Robert Bradley, senior associate in the World Resources
Institute's climate, energy and pollution program. "There's literally no way a
western government is going to start handing money to the Saudis because we've
started using a few less barrels of oil," he said. "But the Saudis have been
very, very good making sure it's never off the agenda." Because of the Saudis'
view, "it's very difficult to see how these negotiations are going to go
anywhere," Bradley said.

It is universally acknowledged that any international effort to mitigate
global warming must ultimately include the US and China, and observers are
particularly interested in what emerges from the backstage chatter about that
issue and about the future of the Kyoto process. "I don't think there will be
any big public announcements, but we'll see thousands of participants floating
ideas of various kinds," Bradley said. Ray Kopp, a senior fellow at Resources
for the Future, said "we are saddled with this protocol. It is in place, and
we either have to think of an approach that's complementary to Kyoto or at
least not entirely antagonistic that will allow us to bring in the US, China
and, hopefully, India and a few others into making actual commitments
relatively soon." China and the US "care about international trade, they care
about development, and they care about competitiveness," Kopp said, adding
climate change should be part of that "package."

The bigger story at the convention will probably start to unfold behind the
scenes, where delegates "are going to start exploring informally the future of
the climate regime," Bradley said. Meanwhile, Kopp noted the "big guns" at
COP-10 will be environment ministers. "In the future, I think it will be a
much smaller number of nations (those primarily responsible for the problem)
than 160 at COP-10, and the big guns are going to be trade ministers," he
said.

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