Demand for oil set to bubble up fast

Jul 14, 2004 - Evening News; Edinburgh
Author(s): Jim Stanton Deputy Business Editor

THE worldwide demand for oil will continue to grow rapidly next year as the global economy continues on an expansion phase.

 

But the growth will not be quite as dramatic as that seen this year said the International Energy Agency, which advises 26 of the world's leading industrialised economies on energy policy.

 

Global fuel consumption is forecast to grow by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) or 2.2 per cent to 83.2 million bpd next year, the IEA said.

 

And that would mark only a modest slowdown from a 2.5 million bpd jump projected for this year which has been fuelled by the most voracious demand for oil in 24 years by the reawakening United States and Chinese economies.

 

"Despite record high prices, oil consumption is growing at a record pace," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report. "Our forecast for 2005 reflects the expectation that the world economy will continue to expand at a relatively fast pace of around four per cent."

 

The Asian financial crisis of 1998 sparked a three-year downturn in oil demand. But since economies emerged from the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the US, there has been another growth streak.

 

China sees demand growing by 510,000 bpd, or 8.1 per cent in 2005, following this year's projected increase of 800,000 bpd, or 14.5 per cent, the IEA said.

 

North America is expected to post 260,000 bpd of growth, down from this year's 530,000 bpd forecast rise, the IEA added. European growth should prove more robust at 200,000 bpd, from 240,000 bpd in 2004.

 

The demand outlook makes rosy reading for the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries producers which are enjoying an oil- market boom that this year sent prices to their highest level for 21 years.

 

The IEA expects demand for OPEC's oil to increase by 200,000 bpd to 27.4 million bpd next year as non-OPEC supply growth fails to keep pace with rising world consumption.

 

Crude oil supply growth outside the OPEC cartel is forecast at 1.2 million bpd on top of 420,000 bpd of natural gas liquids and non- conventional oils, matching this year's rise.

 

"We're going to see continued growth in OPEC market share. In the absence of economic downturn we're going to see continued tightness in the oil market," said Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank in London.

 

Along with many other oil analysts, the IEA has been wrong- footed this year by the force of oil's demand jump, and the Paris- based agency warned that 2005 forecasts are also prone to revisions.

 

"Supply uncertainties in Iraq, Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela, demand uncertainties in China, North America and Asia and continuing tensions in the Middle East will affect our projections," it said.

 

 


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