ELECTRICAL UTILITIES SAY THEY'RE READY FOR SUMMER

BY JEFF SMYTH
THE SOUTHERN
[Mon May 31 2004]

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS -- Electrical utilities serving Southern Illinois say they are in good shape to handle the increase associated with typical higher summer demands.

Officials also are hopeful that last year's blackout which left millions of customers in the Midwest, Northeast and Canada without power, won't be repeated. The outage did not affect Illinois.

"There is plenty of electricity in Illinois," said Tim Reeves, president and general manager of Southern Illinois Power Co-op. "There is actually an excess of generation here."

The co-op feeds power from its Lake of Egypt plant to 70,000 meters throughout Southern Illinois. The facility has a generating capacity of 441 megawatts, far greater than the 370 megawatts needed during peak demands.

Officials at AmerenCIPS, another key Southern Illinois power provider, said they also are confident demand won't zap supply even under extreme conditions.

"Even under a worst-case scenario we believe we have capacity sufficient enough to handle power demands," said Leigh Morris, director of corporate communications. "We do not anticipate a need for load curtailment for our customers."

Morris said the company is projecting peak demand to reach 2,110 megawatts, up from 2,055 megawatts last year. Power to the region comes from any of a handful of generating plants it operates, including the 519-megawatt facility at Grand Tower.

"You can't tell where the electrons come from when they leave a generating plant. They follow the laws of physics of following the path of least resistance," Morris said. "Suffice it to say, it comes from our system."

Morris said the forecast in a higher seasonal peak is indicative of a stronger economy and more people tapping into the system.

"More people are running air conditioners and using electronic devices. There are more homes and more customers," Morris said. "The economy in the first quarter improved, and that translates into a greater demand for electricity."

Illinois Power also is ready for the summer spike in usage. The company serves more than 650,000 customers statewide, and anticipates a summer peak load in its control area of 4,112 megawatts. It is an energy delivery company.

"Essentially, the bottom line is the customers should feel confident that they'll have electricity this summer," said Shirley Swarthout, a IP spokeswoman, said.

Reeves, of Southern Illinois Power Co-op, said his biggest concern isn't the ability to produce electricity but a failure of the transmission system should local generators break down. That would force providers to augment their supplies with energy purchased elsewhere. That increases the potential for overloading the transmission system.

"If one line goes down it shifts the load to other lines. We could start losing lines," Reeves said.

The "cascading" of the transmission system failing is what occurred last August when a failure in the system tripped other parts of it to shut down because loads couldn't be handled. Within three minutes 21 power plants shut down.

But Tom Overbye, a University of Illinois professor and a U.S. Department of Energy lead investigator into the blackout, said it wasn't the reliability of the system, but Mother Nature and human error, that caused the failure.

"Most have backed away from the argument that the aging transmission system was the problem," Overbye said. "We've learned that the causes of the blackout were trees which caused lines to go out of service and a lack of situational awareness. Control centers didn't know what was going on with the power system. They are working on ways to better monitor the system."

Overbye said utilities are being more active in trimming trees from high-voltage transmission lines.

"We want our power but we also like our trees," he said. "The limited capacity of the transmission system wasn't the problem. It was not operating it in a safe manner."

Swarthout at IP said the company is working hard at removing threats to power lines with some success. Service interruptions related to trees dropped about 15 percent since 2000. Last year, trees accounted for 3.9 percent of losses of power to customers.

"Lack of tree maintenance was one of three main factors in the blackout," she said.

Overbye said Illinois is in good shape when it comes to availability of electricity. He said generating facilities here are capable of producing 40,000 megawatts of electricity. Overall demand is estimated at 30,000 megawatts.

"The Illinois system is a strong system. It helps being in the central U.S., where we can get supplies on all sides," Overbye said.

Overbye said the greatest threat isn't from a lack of supply or a failure of the high-voltage lines, but as the system snakes closer to a residence more trees could fall, snapping lines.

"Most of the losses to the grid happen in that last couple of miles to the house," he said.

jeff.smyth@thesouthern.com 618-529-5454 x15073