Campaign Skirts Tricky Issue of Costly Oil
USA: November 1, 2004


WASHINGTON - Record crude oil prices have mostly seeped between the cracks of this year's presidential campaign in a tacit recognition that next week's winner can do little to defuse oil prices soaring above $50 a barrel.

 


President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry have sketched out competing energy schemes to curb demand and boost domestic supplies amid a 60 percent run-up in crude oil prices this year.

However, the U.S. economy and a war in Iraq have overshadowed $2 a gallon gasoline pump prices in the campaign.

One possible reason that energy issues remain on the back-burner: Whoever sits in the Oval Office has little power to directly influence record-high prices. China's thirst for oil and political instability in major producing nations like Venezuela and Nigeria increasingly set the market price.

"There is no indication that either candidate has a plan that will do more than market forces," said Anthony Cordesman, an energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This (campaign) is almost all rhetoric and no substance."

Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., agreed the next president will have "somewhat limited" power to affect oil prices.

The U.S. energy industry overwhelmingly backs Bush, a former Texas oilman, over Kerry, who supports stricter environmental protections that could cost domestic refiners and utilities more money.

Oil traders take a more nuanced view. A second term for Bush could stoke nervousness about aggressive U.S. policies in the Middle East and Iran, while Kerry is seen as more likely to work through conventional diplomatic channels.

STRATEGIC RESERVE

A crucial difference between Bush and Kerry is their approach to the nation's emergency crude oil stockpile.

The Bush administration continues to add oil to the 670 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve despite record prices and the need for refiners to churn the oil into winter heating supplies. Kerry says he would stop filling it at current prices to keep more oil on the open market.

That difference is important for the world oil market, now suffering from a shortage of light, sweet crude oil, which makes up about 40 percent of reserve supplies. U.S. refiners crave sweet crude because it is easier to process into petroleum products.

"We are literally taking the best crude - West Texas Intermediate - off the market" by continuing stockpile additions, said Shirley Neff, a consultant with Goldwyn International Strategies and a Kerry adviser.

If Kerry won, he would not take office until late January, making it difficult to gauge the impact of halting stockpile additions. The emergency reserve was created by Congress in the mid-1970s after the Arab oil embargo to protect against another major supply disruption.

STUMPING FOR INDEPENDENCE

Both candidates advocate weaning the U.S. economy from reliance on oil imports, which now satisfy about 65 percent of demand. Many experts dismiss such talk as a pipe dream, insisting that dependence on suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Russia will only rise in coming years.

"It makes a great stump speech but this is an interdependent market," Mueller said.

The central plank of Bush's energy strategy is to open a vast Alaskan wildlife refuge and more federal lands to drilling. But "developing U.S. resources through federal intervention won't have much of an impact on global prices," Cordesman said.

A Kerry victory could be a boon for new energy sources like wind and solar, while triggering a new push for tighter mileage standards for gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and autos.

The Massachusetts senator backs a 10-year, $30 billion energy package that includes $10 billion to build cleaner coal-fired power plants and $10 billion to help U.S. auto makers retool to build more fuel-efficient cars.

Playing to key environmental and labor constituents, Kerry also wants to require 20 percent use of renewable power supplies like wind and ethanol in motor fuels by 2020.

Such advances could send a "huge signal" to world energy markets that the United States - the world's biggest energy user - is serious about conserving, said Frank Verrastro at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

However, powerful Republicans such as House Majority Leader Tom DeLay stand ready to protect oil industry interests, experts said.

 


Story by Chris Baltimore

 


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE