OPEC revises 2005 demand for its crude below 28

OPEC revises 2005 demand for its crude below 28-mil b/d

London (Platts)--18Nov2004


OPEC has revised its estimate of demand for crude produced by its eleven
members next year plus movements in and out of stocks downwards by 140,000 b/d
to 27.97-mil b/d from its previous 28.11-mil b/d projection. The Monthly Oil
Market Report for November released by OPEC's Vienna secretariat Thursday also
shaded down its its previous estimate of demand for OPEC crude and stocks this
year, from 27.90-mil b/d to 27.89-mil b/d. Fourth quarter demand on OPEC plus
stocks is revised downwards by 200,000 b/d, to 28.31-mil b/d from 28.51-mil
b/d, while the first quarter 2005 demand estimate is lowered by 90,000 b/d, to
28.1-mil b/d from 28.19-mil b/d. The second quarter 2005 call is pegged at
26.95-mil b/d, 50,000 b/d down from the previous estimate. The biggest
quarterly adjustment is in fourth quarter 2005 demand for OPEC crude which is
now seen at 28.70-mil b/d, down 380,000 b/d from last month's 29.08-mil b/d
projection. This is the result of fourth quarter 2005 world oil demand being
revised downwards by 380,000 b/d, from 85.28-mil b/d 84.90-mil b/d.

World oil demand is cut by 50,000 b/d to 81.74-mil b/d for 2004. For 2005,
world oil demand is estimated at 83.23-mil b/d, down 180,000 b/d from the
previous 83.41-mil b/d projection. OPEC said it had lowered slightly its 2004
world oil demand estimate "to account for the slowdown in Chinese consumption
in the second half of the year as well as an expected lower apparent demand in
the [Former Soviet Union] due to the lower pace of economic activity." It said
world oil demand growth estimates for 2005 had been lowered to account for the
lower rate of global economic growth. China, it said, would remain "the wild
card for next year." The report noted that were "some signs of moderating
demand in China" but that "no overall pattern of slower growth is evident."
Non-OPEC supply estimates were lowered by 40,000 b/d for both 2004 and 2005,
to 53.86-mil b/d and 55.26-mil b/d respectively. Third quarter 2005 non-OPEC
supply is cut by 180,000 b/d to 54.85-mil b/d.

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