Oil-dependent Philippines banks on volcano power

PHILIPPINES: September 14, 2004


MANILA - The Philippines vowed this week to become the world's top producer of volcanic power to curb a rising oil import bill and ease its crushing debt, but analysts cast doubt on its ability to see the plan through.

 


Geothermal and hydro power already account for a third of national electricity output, and the potential for more renewable energy capacity is high.

But a government energy investment wish-list launched on Thursday to lift the impoverished nation out of oil dependence carries a $25 billion price tag to set against a $61 billion national debt and last year's $3.5 billion budget deficit.

In his "energy independence agenda", Energy Secretary Vincent Perez acknowledged an urgent need to cap growth in last year's $4 billion bill for crude oil and oil products to feed motor fuel and power generation demand.

"A stable, self-sufficient and vibrant energy sector is crucial to job creation, economic growth and stability, and for the future well-being of the Philippines," he said.

The Department of Energy said the Philippines needs to install an additional 5,200 megawatts of power generating capacity by 2014 - about a third of existing supply - to meet rising demand.

To achieve this, it wants to see renewable-based generating capacity double by 2013 from the current 4,500 megawatts. Hydro power already accounts for 19 percent of current capacity, and geothermal 15.

LEADER IN GEOTHERMAL AND WIND

The plan is to harness two lucky accidents of geography; the "Ring of Fire" volcanic area the Philippines straddles, and its typhoon-prone weather system, to become the world's largest geothermal energy producer and the leading wind energy producer in Southeast Asia.

"We are today the world's second-largest geothermal producer, converting volcanic power into energy," Perez said, adding the Philippines could overtake the United States as the leading producer if it could develop 10 proposed new geothermal fields.

The 10 fields were opened to interested investors in March, and should provide an estimated 300 to 470 megawatts of power. Five Japanese firms and a U.S. company have expressed keen interest, Perez said. Firms have until November to submit bids.

Wind is next on the list. Last month, a 2-megawatt hybrid wind-or-diesel power plant started up in Batanes island in the northern Philippines, becoming the first of its kind in the country.

A Danish-Filipino consortium is building a 25-megawatt wind-powered plant in Ilocos, also in the northern Philippines. State-owned PNOC-Energy Development Corp. also plans to build a larger 40-megawatt Ilocos plant, the government said.

The government is also seeking investors for 16 wind-powered plants with a potential capacity of 345 megawatts.

Solar energy will be promoted too in far flung areas, and the nation aims to become Southeast Asia's manufacturing centre of solar wafer, a core building block for solar generation.

SunPower Philippines Corp., an affiliate of U.S. technology firm Cypress Semicondutor (CY.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , set up a $330 million solar wafer factory in the country early this year.

Work has also begun on a move into biofuels.

Government vehicles have started using a 1 percent blend of coconut methyl ester in their diesel and government plans to promote ethanol from sugar as an additive to gasoline in the next few years.

Despite the hype and progress made so far, the ambitious plans are overshadowed by a thick cloud of scepticism as analysts wonder how investors will see past a poor record on managing energy finances to the long-term economic benefits.

State-owned National Power Corp. accounts for close to one sixth of the national debt by itself, a near $10 billion pile that grows daily as it racks up losses. Analysts say the country's regulatory structure, court and political meddling in setting power rates is a key barrier to investor interest.

"Once you resolve with finality how power can be priced without much intervention from the government, then we will be able to see big players (invest)," said Jose Vistan, analyst at AB Capital.

Athena Ronquillo, Greenpeace international climate and energy campaigner, is sceptical about the level of political will, and says success or failure is out of the government's hands anyway.

"Governments always pay attention when there is a crisis, which is very sad," she said. "In the Philippines our entire economy is dictated by where the money is coming from - foreign finance."

(Additional reporting by David Fogarty)

 


Story by Dolly Aglay

 


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE