Fed's McTeer sees no recession from energy woes

May 11, 2004 - Reuters Power News
Author(s): Reuters

 

NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) -

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer said in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Monday that that despite the spike in energy prices, the United States will not go into a recession as it has during previous jumps in energy costs. "Paying more for oil and natural gas can sap growth, but this time around the recovery appears robust enough to withstand the higher energy bills," he wrote. "Fortunately, more expensive energy will only muffle the recovery, not snuff it out," McTeer wrote.

Nine of the 10 U.S. recessions since World War II came on the heels of spikes in oil prices, McTeer wrote in his Journal commentary. In recent days, oil has nearly hit $40 a barrel while natural gas prices are higher than normal for this time of year. In support of his comments McTeer cited a more than 50 percent cut in the energy-to-Gross Domestic Product ratio since the early 1980s and the fact that current price spikes are not as severe as they have been in the past

He added that benefits from past experiences among companies "gained over years in dealing with higher energy prices," will help the U.S. economy this time around. Energy prices will likely come down off their highs, McTeer wrote, but "market fundamentals" indicate prices will stay high compared with levels in recent years.

He warned that factors behind the recent surge in prices like increasing Chinese demand and rising natural gas production costs will be around for a long time. "Substantial world-wide investments in oil production, liquefied natural gas facilities, pipelines and the electricity grid will be needed just to keep energy prices on their present path," he said.

 

 


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