23-02-04 A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs, warns that major
European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a
"Siberian" climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine
and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the
edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure
dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly
eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
The findings will prove humiliating to the George W. Bush administration,
which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that
they will also make unsettling reading for a president who has insisted national
defence is a priority.
The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew
Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past
three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at
transforming the US military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Climate
change "should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national
security concern," say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and
former head of planning at Shell, and Doug Randall of the California-based
Global Business Network.
An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is "plausible and
would challenge United States national security in ways that should be
considered immediately," they conclude. As early as next year widespread
flooding by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.
Earlier, the Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of
respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its
policy agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like.
Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA), said that suppression of the report for four months was a further example
of the White House trying to bury the threat of climate change. Senior
climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts could prove the catalyst in
forcing Bush to accept climate change as real. They also hope it will convince
the US to sign up to global treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.
A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the White House to voice
their fears over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get the US to
treat the issue seriously. Sources have told that US officials appeared
extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with complaints that America's
public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.
One even alleged that the White House had written to complain about some of the
comments attributed to Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific adviser,
after he branded Bush's position on the issue as indefensible. Among those
scientists present at the White House talks were John Schellnhuber, former chief
environmental adviser to the German government and head of the UK's leading
group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
He said that the Pentagon's internal fears should prove the "tipping
point" in persuading Bush to accept climatic change.
Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and former chair of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, added that the Pentagon's dire
warnings could no longer be ignored.
"Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going to be hard to blow off this sort
of document. Its hugely embarrassing. After all, Bush's single highest priority
is national defence. The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal group, generally speaking
it is conservative. If climate change is a threat to national security and the
economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the Bush administration tend
to listen to, the oil lobby and the Pentagon," added Watson.
Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying a higher
population than it can sustain. By 2020 "catastrophic" shortages of
water and energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging
the planet into war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought
widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations that
could soon be repeated.
So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said, that they may prove vital
in the US elections. Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept
climate change as a real problem. Scientists disillusioned with Bush's stance
are threatening to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.
Source: Taipei Times