The North American Electric Reliability Council, however, warned that unanticipated equipment problems and extremely hot weather could cause problems in California and New York.
"NERC and the industry have taken a number of steps to improve reliability in the wake of last summer's blackout," said Michehl Gent, NERC president and chief executive, in a release.
"If all entities comply with NERC reliability standards, then there should be no uncontrolled blackouts," Gent said.
Last August, a widespread blackout that started in Ohio and spread to the U.S. Northeast and Ontario, Canada, left 50 million people without power.
NERC, which recommends rules to ensure the reliability of the North American electric system, was created in 1968 in the wake of a major blackout in the Northeast.
In its assessment, NERC said it expected fuel supplies to be adequate and transmission systems to perform reliably, although some transmission bottlenecks were expected to occur in some areas again this summer.
"Unanticipated equipment problems and extremely hot weather can combine to produce situations in which demand temporarily exceeds available generation and transmission capacity," the assessment said.
Additionally, in some local areas -- southern California and New York City's suburbs in Connecticut and Long Island -- grid operators may need to implement controlled demand reductions to maintain the constant balance between supply and demand.
LOCAL PROBLEMS
"The potential still exists for extremely hot weather and transmission outages which would result in some local problems (in the New York region)," George Bartlett, chairman of NERC's Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, told reporters during a conference call.
Controlled demand reductions include pleas for conservation, interrupting service to industrial and commercial customers, voltage reductions -- brownouts -- and, in the worst case, temporary blackouts in specific locations.
California was another area where potential problems were seen during extremely hot weather, which significantly raises demand due to heavy use of air conditioners.
The chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Pat Wood, earlier this month said he was concerned about "very troublesome conditions" in California and warned of a repeat of the state's 2000-2001 energy shortage.
The state's grid operator, the California Independent System Operator, has already this year issued a stage one alert, which prompts a voluntary call for conservation.
A stage two alert results in the loss of service to some commercial customers, known as interruptibles, who receive power at a discount in return for agreeing to shut down when supplies are tight. Stage three can spark rotating blackouts.
"There could possibly be times (during the summer) they have to go to a stage two alert and hit the interruptibles," Bartlett said.
NERC projected peak demand this summer would increase 2.5 percent versus the 2003 actual peak.
(Additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in Los Angeles)
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