Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Dec 07 2205 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 930 (S06E45) produced an M2 flare at 07/1913Z with a 2600 sfu Tenflare. The M2 flare had an associated CME observed on the Mk4 K-Coronameter at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory. Region 930 remains a complex moderate-sized sunspot group with a beta-gamma-delta configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce further M-class flares and there is a good chance for X-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed is unknown as the recent solar energetic proton events have contaminated the ACE SWEPAM instrument, a condition expected to continue until energetic proton fluxes subside. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues. The maximum observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 07/0115Z, with a maximum observed flux so far of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm periods for the next three days (08 - 10 December).

Although the magnetic cloud associated with the X9 flare and CME observed on 05 December is not expected to impact earth, a shock passage is likely; consequently, active to minor storm periods are

expected on 08 December. CME activity associated with the M6 and

X6 flares on 06 December is expected to cause occasional major storm periods late on 08 December and 09 December. Disturbed conditions are expected to continue through 10 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through 09 December. The greater then 100 MeV proton event appears to have peaked and, barring another injection of high energy protons, the event should end on 08 December.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

Class M 85/85/85

Class X 40/40/40

Proton 99/80/65

PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Dec 096

Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 100/100/100

90 Day Mean 07 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 015/028

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 020/030

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 030/030-040/050-030/040 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/25/30

Minor storm 30/40/30

Major-severe storm 15/20/15

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/25/35

Minor storm 35/45/35

Major-severe storm 20/30/25

Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Begin Time: 2006 Dec 07 1540 UTC Maximum Time: 2006 Dec 07 1930 UTC End Time: 2006 Dec 08 0650 UTC Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1980 pfu NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Dec 08 0500 UTC

Station: GOES12

Observed Yesterday: Yes

Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3780 pfu

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales