by Siddharth Srivastava

24-03-07

India's hopes of tapping into Myanmar's gas resources might have hit a dead end, with Yangon pitching for China instead. India's problems with Myanmar follow US moves to strangle the $ 7.4 bn Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
Reports of the meeting between Indian officials and Myanmar suggest that Yangon has refused to export gas to India or other contenders such as South Korea and instead would prefer a pipeline to China to export gas found offshore.

Myanmar has reportedly told an Indian delegation that it wants to sell gas from offshore Block A-1 and potential discoveries in Block A-3 to China. The Shwe natural-gas field was discovered by Daewoo on the Western Arakan coast of the Bay of Bengal.
While there is still confusion over how matters stand, with Daewoo, the South Korean company that operates the gas fields, denying the claims, nobody doubts that India's position is weak.

Meanwhile, Washington has told India it is opposed to the gas pipeline from Iran, US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, who has visited New Delhi, has said.
"During my trip, I have made it clear at the highest levels of the Indian government that the United States opposes the development of the Iranian pipeline to India," press reports quoted Bodman as saying. "We believe that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and anything that will support that endeavour is something that we oppose."

A prominent US legislator, Congressman Tom Lantos, who is head of the House of Representatives' Committee on International Relations, has introduced a bill that, if passed, will ensure that India and Pakistan are not able to proceed with their gas pipeline connecting to Iran. The legislation, the Iran Counter-Proliferation Act of 2007, seeks to target companies investing in Iran's energy sector by ensuring that deals with Iran worth more than $ 20 mm will bring the investors under US sanctions.
According to reports, the US government has been quietly warning foreign energy companies, including Europe's Shell and Repsol and Malaysia's SKS, as well as the governments of China, India, Pakistan and Malaysia, that penalties are possible if they pursue energy deals with Iran.

As for Myanmar oil and gas, Indian intelligence agencies recently cautioned New Delhi about the possible shut-out of Indian interests by Russian and Chinese oil firms. The agencies argued that the decision by oil-business-savvy Russia and China to veto a US-led move in the United Nations Security Council to address the Myanmar junta's human-rights violations was a critical juncture in the evolving relationship with Russian and Chinese companies now well established in the country.
The agencies highlighted the recent award of three deepwater offshore blocks -- AD-1, AD-6 and AD-8 -- along Myanmar's western Rakhine coast and adjacent to India's territory -- as a possible quid pro quo by the ruling State Peace and Development Council to China's China National Petroleum Corp.

Russia has also stolen a march over the Indian contingent, with the Republic of Kalmykia (RoK) of the Russian Federation recently acquiring its first oil-and-gas exploration and production asset in Myanmar -- the B-2 onshore block. India's ONGC Videsh Ltd and Gas Authority of India (GAIL) have a 30 % stake in A-1 and A-3 blocks, while South Korea's Daewoo is the operator with a 60 % stake. South Korea's Kogas has the remaining 10 % interest.
According to a report, "China has told Myanmar that it will lay about 900 km of pipeline in Myanmar to transport the gas from the offshore area to the Myanmar-China border. The distance from the gas field to the India-Myanmar border is 290 km, making it the most economical export option, but Myanmar's military leadership prefers to go with China.''

Perhaps sensing India's situation, Silver Wave Energy Corp of Singapore -- a privately owned company headed by the well-entrenched Minn Minn Oung, which has helped India's state-run gas utility, GAIL, access three offshore blocks in Myanmar -- seems to have given its relationship with GAIL a low priority by signing a tripartite agreement with the RoK and the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise for oil and gas exploration.
Recently, more gas was discovered off Myanmar's coast, further enhancing the Southeast Asian nation's position as one of the richest countries in the region for hydrocarbons. The latest find was made by Thailand's PTTEP, the exploration arm of the Thai state-controlled oil-and-gas company PTT, in the Gulf of Martaban.

According to recent reports, Dhaka is now reportedly keen to renew discussions with the Indian government on the three-nation gas pipeline involving India, Myanmar and Bangladesh, which has failed to take off because of Dhaka's linking the pipeline and trade issues with India. In this context, India has sought the inclusion of transnational oil and gas pipelines in the World Trade Organization's trade-facilitation measures, which aim to cut red tape and other obstacles to the flow of goods across borders.
"Countries like Bangladesh have shown a lack of commitment in entering into a treaty for providing a transit route [for] Indian goods, including the Myanmar-India gas pipeline, through their land, forcing India to consider other circuitous and uneconomical options,'' says an Indian government submission.

It now seems too little, too late. The solace for India is that in the recent past, massive gas reserves have been found in the rich Krishna-Godavari basin and elsewhere that should meet some of the rising demand for energy sources. India is also exploring the option of nuclear power after a historic deal with the US.
Looking to meet its growing energy requirements from every source, India recently mooted the concept of a "South Asian Energy Ring'', which would comprise transnational energy lines in electricity, gas and oil that would facilitate trade in energy in South Asia.

Speaking at the South Asia Energy Dialogue in New Delhi, under the aegis of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Indian Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said this country already has grid interconnection with Nepal and Bhutan and feasibility studies are under way in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The SAARC, for which energy is a very high priority for cooperation, comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Key SAARC nation Pakistan has welcomed the energy-ring concept. Amanullah Khan Jadoon, minister for petroleum and natural resources, said Pakistan is a strong advocate of energy cooperation in South Asia. Speaking at the meeting of SAARC energy ministers, Jadoon said high economic growth demands high energy inputs.

India needs to act fast. More than half of its power plants are either shut or running at half their capacity because of a coal shortage. Most of India's power plants are coal-based. According to government estimates, India's dependence on crude-oil import will rise to 86.3 % by 2011-12 from 78.3 % at present (2006-07).
New Delhi has estimated a loss of400 mm units of power from 43 gas-based plants, due to an acute shortage of gas, which could be addressed once pipelines are in place from the Krishna-Godavari basin, the site of several recent gas finds. India's power industry suffers an average shortage of 8 % and a peak shortage of 13 %.

India, Asia's third-biggest oil market, is promoting exploration to reduce dependence on imports as prices rise to record levels and output from aging fields drops.
India's current gas supply of 85 mm cmpd, including imported liquefied natural gas, falls short of the potential demand of 170 mm cm, according to estimates by the Oil Ministry. Gas consumption may rise to 400 mm cmpd by 2025 if the economy grows at the projected rate of 7-8 % a year.

Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.