Just a couple of years ago, this prediction for US oil production would have sounded preposterous. But Tudor Pickering Holt's chief energy strategist now thinks the number could grow from the current level of 5.7 million b/d to more than 7 million b/d in the near future. He actually said it out loud recently in an interview with Platts Oilgram News.
He hadn't been drinking, and no one is laughing. In fact, he conceded he was very nearly stating the obvious. Apparently he feels comfortable enough with the progress on oil from high-potential shale formations, that he no longer fears a jinx from articulating the degree of newfound US oil potential.
"I would be disappointed if the addition to US production is not 1 million b/d, and would not be surprised if it is 2 million b/d," Pickering said in an interview to elaborate on a recent written report predicting a "renaissance" for US output.
To put that number in historical perspective, recall that US oil production peaked in 1970 at 9.637 million b/d, and we haven't seen 7 million b/d since 1992. The modern-era low of 4.95 million b/d occurred in 2008, marking the first year below the 5-million mark since 1946.
In the last three years, however, the downward trend has been reversed, thanks in large part to new opportunities emerging in shales like the Bakken and the Eagle Ford, which some operators have hailed as one of the largest oil discoveries in US history.
Pickering calls it a stretch to hope for a new peak to threaten the 9.637-million b/d level, but he also concedes that the risked inventory of drillable prospects in the US has never been larger.
He says: "A renaissance is unfolding that will make the next decade (or more) as vibrant as the 1970s boom."
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