Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Dec 01 2301 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C3
flare from Region 1356 (N17W76) at 30/2232Z.  Two coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/2112Z.
The events appear to originate from filament eruptions.  The first
off the east limb beginning at 30/1922Z and the second near the west
limb beginning at 30/2046Z in SDO/AIA 171 imagery.  We are currently
waiting on model runs to determine the possibility of a glancing
blow from these events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 1 (02 December)
with M-class flare probabilities increasing to a chance for days
2-3 (03-04 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm periods observed at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled.  There is still a
possibility for activity from a southern polar extent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    20/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 155
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  145/140/140
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 142
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  007/008-007/008-006/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                08/08/05
Minor storm           02/02/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           15/16/13
Major-severe storm    08/11/07