Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2011 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few low level C-class flares
occurred early in the period from a region not yet around the east
limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (9-11 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days 1-2 (9-10 December) before increasing
to unsettled and active conditions on day 3 (11 December) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 145
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 146
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/50
Minor storm           01/01/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01