Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2011 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from
14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were two, low level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours, both of which appeared to
be from Region 1367 which is behind west limb. There was a marked
decrease in activity and background levels after 0900Z as Region
1367's loop tops rotated completely out view. Region 1374 (S17W26)
continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet and
stable. A coronal mass ejection/erupting prominence was observed
from the southwest limb at about 0736Z but is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to
be very
low to low. Very low levels are expected to prevail but there is
still a chance for isolated C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15
Dec 126
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 124/124/124
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active
05/05/05
Minor storm
01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active
15/15/15
Minor storm
10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |